According to a United Nations report released on Thursday, current climate policies are on track to cause global warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This is more than double the limit of 1.5°C agreed upon in the Paris Agreement nearly a decade ago.
The annual Emissions Gap report highlights that without significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet could warm by as much as 3.1°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgency, stating, “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster.”
The report notes that global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3% from 2022 to 2023, reaching a record high of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Under the current pledges made by governments, the report estimates temperatures could still rise between 2.6°C and 2.8°C by the end of the century.
Anne Olhoff, the report’s chief scientific editor, pointed out that progress toward climate targets for 2030, especially among G20 countries, has been minimal. The world has already warmed by about 1.3°C.
Next month, nations will meet at the annual UN climate summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan to build on last year’s agreement to move away from fossil fuels. The discussions in Baku will inform countries’ updated emissions-cutting strategies, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are due in February 2025.
The report calls for a collective commitment to reduce yearly greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and by 57% by 2035 to stand a chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Inger Andersen, the executive director of the UN Environment Programme, urged countries to use the upcoming talks to strengthen their NDCs, stating, “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts.