The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), currently grappling with challenges ahead of the February 8 general elections, seems poised to maintain a substantial presence in the Senate until 2027. On the contrary, both the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are anticipated to experience a significant reduction in their Senate memberships, with approximately 69% and 57% of their members, respectively, set to retire on March 11.
The impending Senate dynamics depend on the outcomes of the upcoming polls, and the PTI faces a distinctive disadvantage due to the loss of its cricket bat electoral symbol. The party must enter the assembly with candidates categorized as ‘independents,’ complicating the task of securing sufficient votes for Senate elevation unless it manages to regain its electoral symbol on time.
The term-wise data reveals that out of the 49 senators retiring in March from the current 97-member upper house, only seven belong to the PTI. Currently, the PTI stands as the single largest party in the Senate, boasting 24 senators. This implies that the party is likely to maintain a significant presence with at least 17 senators continuing their tenure until March 2027.
Among the seven retiring PTI members are prominent figures like the Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, Dr. Shahzad Waseem, former minister Azam Swati, Faisal Javed, and Walid Iqbal, who chairs the Senate Committee on Human Rights.
It’s worth noting that the PTI first entered the Senate in 2015 and ascended to the position of the single largest party in the upper house in March 2021, primarily due to its numerical strength in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies.
In contrast, this year will see significant retirements from both the PPP and the PML-N, with 12 out of 21 PPP senators and 11 out of 16 PML-N lawmakers completing their terms on March 11. Eminent figures like Raza Rabbani, Moula Bux Chandio, Ishaq Dar, Mushahid Hussain Sayed, and Musadik Malik are among those retiring senators.
In addition to the PTI, PML-N, and PPP, several senators from other parties, including BAP, JUI-F, National Party, MQM-P, PkMAP, PML-Functional, and JI, are set to retire. This impending shift in the Senate composition awaits the outcomes of the February 8 general elections and subsequent intra-party processes.