Pakistan

Why the Elections Are Scheduled for 2024 Instead of the Previous Year

January 26, 2024
Multan TV HD

Amid lingering uncertainties and reservations, the eagerly anticipated and long-overdue general elections are slated for February 8.

On August 12, 2018, when the newly elected MNAs of the 15th National Assembly (NA) were sworn in, the nation anticipated the next polls to ideally occur around October 12, 2023, upon the expiry of its constitutionally mandated five-year period and the maximum 60-day allowance for the caretaker set-up to conduct the polls.

However, former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif tactfully and prematurely dissolved his government on August 9, 2023, three days before completing its full term, extending the caretaker set-up’s period to a maximum of 90 days instead of 60.

Even then, the general elections should have taken place around November 12, but the actual date announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is February 8, almost three months later.

So, why are the elections taking place at the start of 2024 instead of the end of 2023? Let’s trace the reasons for this delay:

Dissolution of Punjab, KP assemblies:
On December 17, 2022, roughly eight months after being ousted from the prime minister’s office by the Pakistan Democratic Movement-led (PDM) no-confidence motion, then-PTI chairman Imran Khan announced that his party’s governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would dissolve their assemblies to pave the way for fresh elections.

The announcement faced great objection and skepticism from PML-N and PPP leaders, the main forces of the then-ruling PDM government. Later, the PML-N announced readiness to contest elections if the PTI went through with its decision to dissolve the two assemblies.

Experts believed that by dissolving his provincial assemblies, Imran aimed to create political pressure, but the NA was under no legal obligation to do the same.

Imran expressed concerns that the government might not hold general elections even in October 2023—a prediction that eventually came true. His party dissolved both assemblies by January, and caretaker set-ups took over.

After a protracted legal tussle over who would make the announcement and when elections could be held, President Dr. Arif Alvi, in consultation with the ECP, chose April 30 for re-elections in Punjab.

However, in a meeting with Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Sikandar Sultan Raja, an Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) representative sought the postponement of polls for three to four months due to a fresh wave of militancy in both provinces. The Intelligence Bureau’s joint director for Punjab also discussed the presence of armed militants from Afghanistan in Punjab during the meeting.

Despite initially entertaining the idea and accepting the date set by the president, the ECP abruptly postponed the Punjab elections by almost six months until October 8, citing a massive shortfall in police personnel and the non-provision of army personnel as a static force.

The ECP order stated, “The commission is unable to make alternate arrangements to ensure the security of the election material, polling staff, voters, and the candidates.” It added that the finance ministry had also shown an inability to release funds due to a financial crunch and an unprecedented economic crisis in the country.

Irked by the postponement, PTI’s Imran said he had not dissolved the two provincial assemblies for “a bunch of fascists to impose a reign of terror, violating the constitution and rule of law.”

After Punjab, the ECP also notified October 8 as the date for provincial elections for the KP Assembly, citing the unavailability of funds and armed forces required for security as the reason.

Lawyer Syed Sheheryar Raza Zaidi noted in his column for Dawn that a combined reading of the Constitution and the Election Act made it clear that the Constitution did not allow for a delay in polls beyond 90 days, irrespective of the pretext.

Yet, the caretaker set-ups in Punjab and KP were examples of how the Constitution can conveniently be ignored with impunity, he noted.

The matter landed in the Supreme Court (SC), which ruled in March that elections in KP and Punjab should be held within 90 days. However, the ECP and the outgoing ruling coalition in the Centre refused to comply with the court’s orders, citing the need for fresh delimitation of constituencies based on the census results.

The SC faced legal and practical difficulties in enforcing its orders, while also facing resistance and non-cooperation from the executive, the ECP, and the military, who challenged its jurisdiction and authority. The orders were violated without any penalties, undermining the SC’s credibility and independence.

Fresh delimitation:
After the events of May 9, when violent events broke out in the country following Imran’s arrest, overshadowed the apex court’s inability to have its orders obeyed, and after the NA was dissolved in August, albeit slightly prematurely, all eyes were back on the ECP, expected to finally give the date for general elections.

But days before the NA’s dissolution, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) unanimously approved the results of the 2023 digital census, sowing the seeds of further delay.

Citing the census results, the electoral watchdog decided to complete the process of fresh delimitation, the delineation of electoral constituencies based on census data, of both national and provincial assembly constituencies by December 14, over a month beyond the constitutionally mandated deadline for conducting general elections.

This was despite Article 224 of the Constitution binding the watchdog to conduct general elections within three months of the National Assembly’s dissolution.

The development drew a strong reaction from the PTI, which rejected the delimitation schedule, terming it a ploy to delay the polls.

The outgoing PDM-led ruling coalition was also accused of harboring intentions to prolong the election timeline beyond the mandated 90 days. While some reservations were expressed within the PPP, there appeared to be a broader push to delay elections.

For instance, the delay in convening the CCI meeting to approve census results raised eyebrows, hinting at a calculated effort to slow down the electoral process.

On September 21, the ECP announced that after deliberating on delimitations, the elections would be held in the last week of January 2024.

Despite the loose January date, the opposition leader in the previous NA, Raja Riaz, claimed in an interview that the “elders” had decided that elections would be held in February 2024.

Date ‘set in stone’:
After months of dilly-dallying on the issue of polls, the ECP finally agreed in November 2023 to hold general elections on February 8 this year.

The announcement by the ECP came after a meeting between President Arif Alvi and CEC Raja, who visited the presidency with the ECP members, on the orders of the apex court, which had put its foot down and directed the electoral watchdog to confer with the president on the poll date.

“God willing, elections will be held on Feb 8,” Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Isa had stated a day later.

Acting in compliance with the SC’s order, the ECP issued the election schedule for the upcoming polls on December 15.

Uncertainty continues:
Veteran politician Afrasiab Khattak, during a session at the Afkar-e-Taza ThinkFest, recently said there still was uncertainty about the upcoming elections and one should

“see the elephant in the room”

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