With the votes counted, the people of Pakistan have shared their opinions.
PTI seems a bit less liked now compared to 2018, while both PML-N and PPP have gained about 10% more popularity since then.
This is the twelfth election in the last fifty years, and there are familiar complaints about rigging. Election tribunals will deal with disputes, as they have in the past. What Pakistan really needs now is a government that can provide stability.
As political parties struggle to form a stable government, the economy is suffering. The exact cost of this political uncertainty is hard to pinpoint, but we can see measurable impacts on the economy.
Here are three immediate economic losses: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) lost about $2 billion. Pakistan’s international dollar bond had its biggest loss in seven months. This uncertainty is likely to discourage potential foreign investors, missing chances for economic growth and job creation.
Apart from these direct and immediate losses, there will be at least three indirect economic impacts: Increased uncertainty can reduce consumer confidence, leading to less spending and affecting various economic sectors. Businesses may delay important investments due to uncertain economic conditions, depressing overall growth. Delayed decision-making and disruptions in economic activity can contribute to inflation.
Determining the exact cost of political uncertainty is challenging, but using economic indicators and modeling tools can give us valuable insights. My analysis suggests that a prolonged government vacuum could cost between $15 billion and $30 billion. Understanding these potential losses emphasizes the importance of finding a quick and peaceful resolution to form a government and stabilize Pakistan’s political and economic landscape. The responsibility lies with the elected leaders to govern and lead our nation wisely.